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June 03, 2008 | 02:39 PM

Housing market is going to get worse

Tue Jun 3, 2008 02:06PM | By Tony

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vacant-house.JPG

That is according to Lawrence Lindsey, who some say is a bit too pessimistic. I on the other hand think he is too optimistic. Here are few paragraphs taken out of context as they say, but believe me, they will give you an idea. And to drive the point home, revisit the post which shows the chart of historic home values. Read on ...

There are 129 million housing units in the United States, comprising owner-occupied, rented, and vacant units. Of these, 18.5 million are empty. This vacancy rate is 2.5 percentage points higher than it has been at any point in the half century the data have been tracked, translating into at least 3 million too many empty housing units in the country. This number, moreover, is rising. This is the most intractable part of the real estate bubble, for we cannot find a true bottom to home prices until this inventory of empty units starts to clear, and we cannot find a bottom to the mortgage finance market until home prices bottom out.

Just a 20 percent decline in home prices would place a quarter of mortgages under water. A 30 percent decline still more. The great uncertainty is how homeowners will respond: Do they walk away from an asset that is worth less than what they owe on it? The foreclosure prevention activity by Congress and a somewhat different approach proposed by Harvard's Martin Feldstein are designed to keep as many people in their homes as possible, despite the lower prices.

The problem with this is that the wealth loss to the household sector and to the financial services industry would be huge. A 30 percent drop in prices would shrink household assets by about $6.5 trillion. Under normal economic rules of thumb that would permanently lower household spending by $200 billion to $300 billion, or between 1.5 and 2 percent of GDP. Not enough for a recession by itself, but the collateral damage to the financial system would likely be sufficient to induce a downturn similar to those in the 1970s and early 1980s.

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