Housing market slump and rebound
Thu Jul 24, 2008 02:07PM | By Tony
See more in Economy | Permalink | Email | Comments (0)
Why everyone is so surprised by the 2.6 percent fall of existing home sales in June? In my estimate it is rather mild. Of course, if it was bad enough in June when would be buyers could have locked reasonably low interest rates in the end of April and May to settle in their new homes well before school begins, imagine what is going to happen in July, August with already higher mortgage rates, and in fall with school season underway and likely even higher rates? Then of course, late fall and winter looks simply dreadful, because of ... well ... it is late fall and winter that are always slow times in housing market, and the Fed might still raise interest rate prescribing some medicine from Paul Volcker book.
The big question is if the Fed raises rates, but regardless what rebound and where to everyone expects of? There are so many unsold homes, it will take more than a million of new qualified buyers to move them. The up to $7,500 tax break for first-time home buyers who purchase between April 9 of this year and July 1, 2009 is nice but will hardly change the picture. First, these first-time buyers that number some say close to 3 millions, should be able to get mortgages which are not getting any easier. Second, they have to be motivated to buy at all, and why would they be? Someone has to convince them that their homes will hopefully appreciate, that their real estate taxes will not grow as fast as they have been, and that maintaining their house and paying utilities make sense for them financially versus renting or living with their parents.
Helpful Links
Recent Entries
- Make it 2-for-2, BCA is at Carnival of Real Estate...
- BCA is at Carnival of Personal Finance again...
- Is cosigning a car loan any different from cosigning other loans?...
- How much equity do I have in my house...
- How much equity do you need to refinance to get best mortgage rate?...
- Airline stocks are ready to go up...
- Credit repair books? Not that you need any ......
- Statute of limitations on debt - New York State...
- Should you refinance now or do loan modification...
- Should I refinance my mortgage - interest rates are lowest since the 1960s...
Recommended
Archives
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- July 2006
- June 2006
- May 2006
- April 2006
- March 2006
- February 2006
- January 2006
Syndicate